The OMFIF Podcast

Synopsis: Life after Covid-19, Trump's trumped takeover, and more

In this episode of Synopsis, OMFIF Subeditor Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on a possible European fiscal response to the crisis, life after the pandemic, and what the outbreak means for sovereign investment and, possibly, your taxes.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. Shortcomings in US sovereign investment: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/coronavirus-crisis-lays-bare-shortcomings-in-us-sovereign-investment/
2. After the Covid-19 recession: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/after-the-covid-19-recession/
3. The undeniable case for wealth tax: https://www.omfif.org/2020/04/the-undeniable-case-for-wealth-tax/
4. Slow restart for China's economy: https://www.omfif.org/2020/04/slow-restart-for-chinas-economy/
5. Three options for European fiscal action: https://www.omfif.org/2020/04/three-options-for-european-fiscal-action/
6. ECB and Fed innovate in disparate ways: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/ecb-and-fed-innovate-in-disparate-ways/
7. Outlook for Malaysia amid political uncertainties: https://www.omfif.org/podcast/outlook-for-malaysia-amidst-political-uncertainties/
8. What Covid-19 means for financial stability: https://www.omfif.org/events/what-covid-19-means-for-financial-stability/
9. Assessing the economic impact of coronavirus: https://www.omfif.org/events/assessing-the-economic-impact-of-coronavirus/
10. Global economic outlook and Covid-19 policy response: https://www.omfif.org/events/global-economic-outlook-and-covid-19-policy-response/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

In conversation with EBRD: Why good governance matters

The pandemic has resulted in unprecedented upheaval, with governments introducing sweeping measures to contain the virus. The Hungarian government is now ruling by decree. In times like these, good governance is more important than ever. Weeks before the outbreak, Beata Javorcik, chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, joined Julie Levy-Abegnoli, subeditor at OMFIF, to discuss why good governance is essential for economic growth, sustainability and people's wellbeing. They talked about reform in central and eastern Europe, and the effects of European Union accession on EBRD countries of operation.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Outlook for Malaysia amidst political uncertainties

Following a stunning election victory in 2018, Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad, the world's oldest prime minister, resigned abruptly in February this year. This comes at a time when Malaysia faces a host of problems, including falling global oil prices and demand, and a growing public health emergency. Manu Bhaskaran, chief executive officer of Centennial Asia, joins OMFIF's Angelia Lee to discuss the economic and political situation in Malaysia, its future economic stability, and the country's response to Covid-19.

 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

 

 

Synopsis: China's recovery, ECB coronavirus response, and how the pandemic will change the world economy

In this episode of Synopsis, OMFIF Subeditor Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, on China's economic recovery, the European Central Bank's coronavirus response, and how the pandemic will reshape the world economy.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. Resilient China can help lead global recovery: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/resilient-china-can-help-lead-global-recovery/ 
2. Time for 'whatever it takes' support for banks: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/time-for-whatever-it-takes-support-for-banks/
3. ECB 'only game in town' - again: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/ecb-only-game-in-town-again/
4. Coronavirus will remould world economy: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/coronavirus-response-to-remould-the-world-economy/
5. FedTalk: Communicating crisis response and the need for coordination: https://www.omfif.org/podcast/fedtalk-communicating-crisis-response-and-the-need-for-coordination/
6. Global liquidity in the time of coronavirus: https://www.omfif.org/podcast/global-liquidity-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/
7. Covid-19: Dispatches from London and Madrid: https://www.omfif.org/events/spanish-uk-responses-to-covid-19-financial-impact-and-implications-for-brexit/
8. Identifying key risks in US credit markets: https://www.omfif.org/events/identifying-key-risks-in-us-credit-markets/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

Global liquidity in the time of Coronavirus

James Sweeney and Zoltan Pozsar, chief economist and managing director at Credit Suisse respectively, join Pierre Ortlieb, economist at OMFIF, to discuss the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global dollar liquidity and the industrial production cycle. They touch on central bank responses present and future, the state of funding and capital markets, and the influence of post-2008 regulation.

Further reading:

https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/beyond-swap-lines/

https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/fed-treasury-coordination-requires-structural-change/

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

FedTalk: Communicating crisis response and the need for coordination

Thomas Costerg, senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management, joins Rein de Loor, programmes manager at OMFIF, to discuss the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts in response to the coronavirus crisis. As central banks around the world  ease monetary policy, questions arise about global co-ordination and communication, as well as the role of fiscal policy in tackling the global upheaval.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

China and the economic impact of coronavirus Part II

Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia, joins Mark Sobel, US chairman of OMFIF, to continue their conversation on China and the economic impact of coronavirus. They discuss whether China has overcome the worst of the outbreak and is getting back to 'normal', as well as how Chinese markets are responding. They also outline the fiscal and monetary measures Beijing has taken, and what lessons US and European policy-makers can draw from these.

Listen to part one of the podcast here:

https://www.omfif.org/podcast/the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-chinas-economy/?utm_source=chinacoronapodhttps://www.omfif.org/podcast/the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-chinas-economy/

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Synopsis: Coronavirus special

In this episode of Synopsis, OMFIF Subeditor Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, on monetary policy-makers' response to coronavirus.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. Looking beyond unpredictability: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/looking-beyond-unpredictability/
2. Beyond swap lines: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/beyond-swap-lines/
3. Lagarde's 'whatever it takes moment': https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/lagardes-whatever-it-takes-moment/
4. Time to pull the G20 fire bell: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/time-to-pull-the-g20-fire-bell/
5. Why the Fed must do more: https://www.omfif.org/2020/03/lombard-street-and-pandemics/
6. Investing in digital infrastructure: https://www.omfif.org/podcast/investing-in-digital-infrastructure/
7. Resiliency in Japan's monetary policy: https://www.omfif.org/podcast/resiliency-in-japans-monetary-policy/ 
8. UK 'bridge' back to normality: https://www.omfif.org/podcast/uk-bridge-back-to-normality/
9. Discussion with Claudio Borghi: https://www.omfif.org/events/economic-impact-of-the-italian-and-european-position-on-covid-19/
10. Italy's economic position: https://www.omfif.org/events/responding-to-covid-19-italys-economic-position-and-recovery/
11. Outlook for Italian industry: https://www.omfif.org/events/economic-impact-of-the-italian-and-european-position-on-covid-19-2/
12. The US economy and challenges in regulation: https://www.omfif.org/events/the-us-economy-and-future-challenges-in-regulation/ 

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

Charlie Bean: Back to normality

Bean’s view: prevent permanent scarring

The task of economic policy confronting coronavirus disruption is to ‘provide a bridge’ between present dislocation and a new period of growth when normal activity may resume. That is the view of Charlie Bean, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, during a wide ranging OMFIF podcast comparing the pandemic and its economic effects with the 2008 financial crisis and the UK authorities’ fiscal and monetary response.

Bean – Sir Charlie since being knighted when he left the Bank in 2014 – praised the large-scale crisis measures of the Treasury and the Bank of England as showing necessary ‘joined up’ action. ‘The key thing is making sure that this hiatus doesn’t lead to permanent scarring of the UK economy and adverse effects on the supply side. What you want to avoid is perfectly viable businesses before the virus going into bankruptcy and lots of workers losing their jobs.’

Sir Charlie underlined parallels and differences with the last financial crisis, in which he was intensively involved during his time at the BoE. The last crisis centred on imbalances built up as a result of many financial institutions’ over-leveraged balance sheets, culminating in the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This time, with economic disruption caused by a medical emergency, the economy faced a shock to supply and demand which meant putting it into a ‘deep freeze’ for a while. ‘It’s a rather different task from what we faced with the great recession where one was trying to boost demand.’

Bean highlighted shortcomings in international coordination at the G20 or G7 level compared with the last upheavals.

He praised the Bank’s targeted monetary approach in this week’s announcement of unlimited purchases of commercial paper and last week’s resumption of cheap bank funding for passing on to hard-pressed companies. He did not rule out that the BoE could restart more ‘conventional’ quantitative easing through massive purchases of government bonds, but felt this was less appropriate than ‘unconventional’ QE directed at the commercial paper market. Similarly, the 0.5 percentage point cut in interest rates om 10 March, followed by a further cut on 19 March to 0.1%, was probably less potent than the other measures decided last week.

Asked about the collapse in sterling in the last few days, to a 35-year low against the dollar, Bean highlighted uncertainties about Britain’s exit from the European Union as well as the continuing current account deficit of 4% of GDP. He voiced confidence in the ability of his former colleague, Andrew Bailey, now governor of the Bank of England following Mark Carney’s departure last Monday. With most of his career spelt spent at the bank, his greatest attribute was ‘his knowledge and skills of running a central bank particularly if you come in to one of the biggest crises. I feel much more comfortable with Andrew then with some of the other candidates who were put forward.’

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Bank of Japan: Monetary easing unlimited

Bank of Japan has announced additional monetary easing measures to blunt the impact of Covid-19 on financial markets. This followed the Federal Reserve's unexpected decision on 15 March to cut the federal funds to near-zero. Sayuri Shirai, professor of economics at Keio University, and Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC, join OMFIF's Brandon Chye to explore what options are available to central banks, amid concerns over how effective intervention can really be.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music