The OMFIF Podcast

Week in review: Risky rates, Chinese banks' global outreach, decadent Brexit, and more

OMFIF's Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on negative interest rates, Chinese banks' cross-border activities, and decadent Brexit.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. UK negative rates could do more harm than good: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/uk-negative-rates-could-do-more-harm-than-good/
2. Chinese banks' global footprints: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/chinese-banks-global-footprints/
3. Covid-19 and the 'decadent Brexit' hypothesis: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/covid-19-and-the-decadent-brexit-hypothesis/
4. Worldwide insurance heading for shake-up: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/worldwide-insurance-heading-for-shake-up/
5. European response to Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/podcast/european-response-to-covid-19/
6. Implications of monetary and fiscal policies on investment markets: https://www.omfif.org/events/implications-of-monetary-and-fiscal-policies-on-investment-markets/
7. Economic and financial trends in Latin America: https://www.omfif.org/events/economic-and-financial-trends-in-latin-america/
8. Markets and their supervision in times of Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/market-participation-and-supervision-in-times-of-covid-19/
9. Overcoming debt crisis in emerging markets: https://www.omfif.org/events/overcoming-debt-crisis-in-emerging-markets-prospects-for-sovereign-debt-restructuring-and-access-to-financing/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

European response to Covid-19

The European Central Bank at the next monetary policy meeting on 4 June is expected to increase its pandemic emergency bond-buying programme by €400bn- €500bn, after having spent around €250bn of the €750 bn total up to end-May. That is the forecast of Didier Borowski, head of global views at French asset manager Amundi, in a podcast with OMFIF on the options facing the ECB after the ruling on bond purchases by the German constitutional court on 5 May. ‘If you look ahead, and seeing the debate in Germany, [the ECB] may lose some flexibility in its purchase programme,’ Borowski said. ‘In the short run, we would expect the ECB in its government bond purchases to continue to deviate quite substantially from the capital key. 

 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Worldwide insurance heading for shake-up

David Marsh is joined by Simon Woods, EY’s global response leader for the Covid-19 repercussions on the insurance industry. They discuss the pandemic’s effect on the global insurance industry, including the immediate and longer-term consequences for operations and technology, looking at the challenges and opportunities brought by digitalisation. They examine the financial health of the insurance sector as a result of the volatility in financial markets and the recession, and what can be said of the significant strain on capital, liquidity, and investment strategies. They address big questions on how the insurance industry can work with customers, governments and regulators in contributing to the wider economic recovery and investigate the outlook for innovation, and worldwide insurance consolidation.

Simon Woods is the leader for insurance strategy for the Europe, Middle East, India and Africa region and a veteran of the sector, having been at EY since 2014, and in the 15 years before that before that covering insurance in various investment banking positions.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Week in review: Merkel and Macron to the rescue, Covid and real estate, and the return of German government borrowing

OMFIF’s Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on the Franco-German proposal for a €500bn recovery fund, the impact of Covid-19 on real estate markets, the outlook for this decade, and the return of German government borrowing.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. Franco-German fund move amid ECB manoeuvring: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/franco-german-fund-move-amid-ecb-manoeuvring/
2. Covid's impact on real estate: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/covids-impact-on-real-estate/
3. Markets should pay heed: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/markets-should-pay-heed/
4. Asia Pacific regional economic outlook: https://www.omfif.org/events/asia-pacific-regional-economic-outlook/
5. Refinancing the German crisis measures: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/refinancing-the-german-crisis-measures/
6. Future of the euro area: https://www.omfif.org/events/future-of-the-euro-area/
7. Global trade during the economic slowdown: https://www.omfif.org/events/global-trade-during-the-economic-slowdown/
8. Japan Financial Services Agency perspectives on Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/japan-financial-services-agency-perspectives-on-covid-19-addressing-financial-stability-risks/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

 

Global value chains, innovation and international trade

As US-China tensions fuel economic nationalism and protectionism, globalisation could be coming to an end. Xiaolan Fu, director of the Technology and Management Centre for Development at the University of Oxford, joins OMFIF’s Brandon Chye to discuss the short-term disruptions and long-term transformations to global value chains and international trade.

 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Fixed income in emerging economies

James Blair, fixed income investment director at Capital Group, joins Pierre Ortlieb, economist at OMFIF, to discuss the state of play in global bond markets. They cover Capital Group’s approach to credit investments, opportunities in emerging markets, and the global central bank response to the pandemic shock. Other themes include the global long-term interest rate landscape and the outlook for currency and commodities markets.

 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

 

 

Fed Talk: in conversation with James Bullard

In response to the Covid-19 health crisis, the Federal Reserve has taken a number of policy actions to help steady both the US economy and global dollar liquidity. James Bullard, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, joins David Marsh, chairman of OMFIF, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s policies, an outlook for the US economy and global consequences of the pandemic.

This was recorded as part of a live panel discussion.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Week in review: ECB-German court battle continues, what's next for inflation, and reviving climate action

OMFIF’s Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on inflation predictions, the German constitutional court ruling on the Bundesbank's participation in European quantitative easing, climate action, and the financial consequences of stimulus transmission.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. The end of stable inflation rates: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/the-inflation-v-deflation-debate/
2. Inflation now a fiscal phenomenon: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/inflation-now-a-fiscal-phenomenon/
3. German court dispute goes to EU's heart: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/german-court-dispute-goes-to-eus-heart/
4. ECB 'may double' pandemic bond buying: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/ecb-may-double-pandemic-bond-buying/
5. Covid-19 lessons for sustainable finance: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/covid-19-lessons-for-sustainable-finance/
6. Stimulus transmission and its financial consequences: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/stimulus-transmission-and-its-financial-consequences/
7. Building the Philippines' 'new economy': https://www.omfif.org/events/building-the-philippines-new-economy/
8. German economic developments: https://www.omfif.org/events/german-economic-developments/
9. 'Too big to fail' in times of Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/too-big-to-fail-in-times-of-covid-19/
10. Reopening India's economy: https://www.omfif.org/events/reopening-indias-economy/
11. Covid-19 and the economy - A view from California: https://www.omfif.org/events/covid-19-and-the-economy-a-view-from-california/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

The Great Lockdown: Analysing the world economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund projects a significant contraction in all parts of the world as a result of the Covid-19 crisis. Lockdown measures and uncertainty about the return to work, as well as what a ‘new normal’ would look like, are having a serious impact on how to forecast future growth. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, deputy director in the IMF’s research department, discusses the baseline scenario in the World Economic Outlook, and the potential ways forward for the global economy in 2020-21.

Download the presentation slides referenced:

https://www.omfif.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WEO-PPT-May-8_2020.pdf 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Debt restructuring in the post-pandemic economy

Before the pandemic, the inherent imbalances which had built up after a decade of monetary policy intervention had resulted in excess debt and probable future instability. Bill White, former chairman of the economic and development review committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, joins Mark Burgess, Asia chairman of OMFIF. They discuss what the Covid-19 outbreak means for policy-makers, emerging market debt prior to the crisis, and shadow banking.

 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music