Invested: The OMFIF Podcast

Simon Chantry, Bitt’s co-founder and chief information officer, and its new economist Jim Shinn, a former US government official and member of the Criteo central bank digital currency team that was one of the three winners of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s global CBDC challenge in 2021, join DMI editor Lewis McLellan. They discuss Bitt’s experience in deploying CBDC protocols, key themes emerging in retail CBDC development and the geopolitical pressures underpinning them.

The European Central Bank has established a supervisory climate risk stress test to better understand banks’ capabilities, risk metrics, long-term risk projections and parameters in physical and transition risk scenarios. Christoffer Kok, head of the stress test modelling division of the ECB's directorate general for macroprudential policy and financial stability, joins Emma McGarthy, head of OMFIF’s Sustainable Policy Institute, to discuss the results of the stress test, approaches and methodologies taken and lessons learnt.

Melvin Khomo, general manager for financial markets at the Central Bank of Eswatini, joins Dieter Sauter, general manager of the business unit value printing at Bundesdruckerei, and Lewis McLellan, editor of the Digital Monetary Institute, to discuss what advantages a central bank digital currency can deliver. The importance of a robust means of digital identity verification as a means of improving financial inclusion as well as part of the foundation for digital currency infrastructure and the importance of creating a robust, secure platform that citizens will feel confident in adopting are also covered.

Public asset owners are at an inflection point as traditional investment strategies and business models are challenged by a rapidly changing landscape. Sovereign funds, public pension funds and central banks, which collectively hold over $40tn in assets, need to adapt to an industry in flux to achieve their core goals.

In a far-reaching, survey-based report, ‘The Evolution of Public Asset Owners’, BNY Mellon finds that the majority of public asset owners are seeking new and bold ideas in search of yield, that only 6% are satisfied with their business models and a solid majority have begun operational transformation, in large part to meet the demands of digitisation and data challenges. Christine Mikolajuk, Europe, Middle East and Africa chief operating officer for global client management at BNY Mellon, joins Patricia Haas Cleveland, OMFIF US president, to discuss the report's findings.

With Governor Andrew Bailey conveying to an OMFIF gathering that the monetary policy committee ‘will, if necessary, act forcefully… no ifs and buts’ to get consumer price index inflation down to its 2% target, all eyes will be on the MPC’s August announcement. Further - and potentially heavier rate hikes - look inevitable, as the Bank reclaims its cherished policy tool, while in tandem, though not with equal force, starting a process of active quantitative tightening (gradually selling the Bank’s assets). August’s meeting thus provides an important opportunity to take the next steps - with a possible sixth rate hike since December, of at least 25 basis points and very possibly more, and a pathway for QT.

To discuss the issues, Neil Williams, OMFIF’s chief economist, speaks with OMFIF economist, Taylor Pierce.

Despite other central banks flexing their muscles, Japan’s authorities have every reason to prolong a policy loosening in the Bank of Japan’s 24th year. Japan’s quantitative easing will have to continue with policy rates suppressed, leaving the ministry of finance reliant on the Bank of Japan as its monetary agent. Yet, deep in a liquidity trap, it’s doubtful easier money alone will prove any different, suggesting the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was right to believe that other policy strands would be needed. In the longer term, is Japan still a test case for others?

OMFIF Chief Economist Neil Williams covers the issues with Economist Taylor Pearce. For more, see ‘Breaking Japan’s deflationary psychology’. (https://www.omfif.org/2022/07/breaking-japans-deflationary-psychology/)

Elia Trippel, policy analyst at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, spoke with Katerina Atkins, programme coordinator of OMFIF’s Sustainable Policy Institute, about the objectives and metrics of a social taxonomy and the process of its development in the European Union.

The European Central Bank has been slower than most to pull away the monetary rug, but it now stands ready with a key announcement on 21 July. What should we expect as it raises rates and, having stopped net purchases, sets out its stall for reinvesting member governments’ maturing bonds? Can the two levers be used in equal force, or will onus have to be on rate hikes over quantitative tightening to avoid fragmentation risk? What could possibly go wrong? How should asset allocators play it as the ECB is set aside from other central banks, having to manage a monetary union short on economic union? And, after an initial hike in July – the first for 11 years – what might we expect from the 8 September meeting and beyond?

To discuss the issues, Salman Ahmed, global head of macro & strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, speaks with Neil Williams, OMFIF chief economist.

For more on the ECB’s soon-to-be-unveiled anti-fragmentation tool, see Eight thorny questions over ECB fragmentation. https://www.omfif.org/2022/07/eight-thorny-questions-over-ecb-fragmentation/

Investors, issuers and policy-makers are all trying to make sense of the war in Ukraine, a global pandemic, more than a decade of cheap money and now rising interest rates and inflation. How do the world’s reserves managers view the global macro outlook? What are the main concerns and drivers? And what are their strategies for asset allocation and integrating environmental, social and governance strategies?

Max Castelli, head of strategy and advice, global sovereign markets, UBS Asset Management, joins Neil Williams, chief economist, OMFIF, to discuss these key questions and delve into reserves managers’ priorities and concerns in the future.

OMFIF Chief Economist Neil Williams speaks with Economist Taylor Pearce in a lightning-round podcast on quantitative easing. They discuss the situation regarding quantitative easing, why central banks are so slow to wind down their balance sheets and what the benefits of running QT would be. For more on this theme, check out Williams’ commentary ‘Central banks can tighten by doing nothing’.