The OMFIF Podcast

Craving – rather than fighting – inflation

Despite other central banks flexing their muscles, Japan’s authorities have every reason to prolong a policy loosening in the Bank of Japan’s 24th year. Japan’s quantitative easing will have to continue with policy rates suppressed, leaving the ministry of finance reliant on the Bank of Japan as its monetary agent. Yet, deep in a liquidity trap, it’s doubtful easier money alone will prove any different, suggesting the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was right to believe that other policy strands would be needed. In the longer term, is Japan still a test case for others?

OMFIF Chief Economist Neil Williams covers the issues with Economist Taylor Pearce. For more, see ‘Breaking Japan’s deflationary psychology’. (https://www.omfif.org/2022/07/breaking-japans-deflationary-psychology/)

Why do we need social taxonomy?

Elia Trippel, policy analyst at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, spoke with Katerina Atkins, programme coordinator of OMFIF’s Sustainable Policy Institute, about the objectives and metrics of a social taxonomy and the process of its development in the European Union.

What to expect from the 21 July ECB meeting

The European Central Bank has been slower than most to pull away the monetary rug, but it now stands ready with a key announcement on 21 July. What should we expect as it raises rates and, having stopped net purchases, sets out its stall for reinvesting member governments’ maturing bonds? Can the two levers be used in equal force, or will onus have to be on rate hikes over quantitative tightening to avoid fragmentation risk? What could possibly go wrong? How should asset allocators play it as the ECB is set aside from other central banks, having to manage a monetary union short on economic union? And, after an initial hike in July – the first for 11 years – what might we expect from the 8 September meeting and beyond?

To discuss the issues, Salman Ahmed, global head of macro & strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, speaks with Neil Williams, OMFIF chief economist.

For more on the ECB’s soon-to-be-unveiled anti-fragmentation tool, see Eight thorny questions over ECB fragmentation. https://www.omfif.org/2022/07/eight-thorny-questions-over-ecb-fragmentation/

Max Castelli on reserves management in a time of uncertainty

Investors, issuers and policy-makers are all trying to make sense of the war in Ukraine, a global pandemic, more than a decade of cheap money and now rising interest rates and inflation. How do the world’s reserves managers view the global macro outlook? What are the main concerns and drivers? And what are their strategies for asset allocation and integrating environmental, social and governance strategies?

Max Castelli, head of strategy and advice, global sovereign markets, UBS Asset Management, joins Neil Williams, chief economist, OMFIF, to discuss these key questions and delve into reserves managers’ priorities and concerns in the future.

Quantitative Tightening: how fast, how far?

OMFIF Chief Economist Neil Williams speaks with Economist Taylor Pearce in a lightning-round podcast on quantitative easing. They discuss the situation regarding quantitative easing, why central banks are so slow to wind down their balance sheets and what the benefits of running QT would be. For more on this theme, check out Williams’ commentary ‘Central banks can tighten by doing nothing’.

Next Generation EU with Siegfried Ruhl: one year later

The €800bn Next Generation EU fund – set up to help finance Europe’s recovery from the economic damage of the Covid-19 pandemic – has been operating since last June. How is its lending schedule and debt management office-like funding programme going? How has its market-changing green bond programme progressed? Who is buying its bonds? How will it operate after 2026, when its initial mandate is complete? How does it compare to other European agency and sovereign borrowers? Might it help finance the eventual reconstruction of Ukraine? Siegfried Ruhl, Hors Classe Advisor at the European Commission's budget department, speaks to OMFIF CEO John Orchard ahead of the conference on the NGEU in Singapore.

Financial stability outlook: global and European perspectives

Just as economies and financial markets around the world were beginning to recover from the unprecedented Covid-19 shocks, fallout from the war in Ukraine has heightened global financial risk once again. How have the post-2008 financial crisis stability frameworks fared in response to these crises? Pedro Duarte Neves, adviser for the board of directors, Banco de Portugal, and Bill Papadakis, investment strategist for Lombard Odier's macro team, speak to Taylor Pearce, OMFIF economist, about the various facets of financial stability for the euro area and globally, including the risks associated with corporate debt levels, sustainability imperatives and non-bank financial institutions.

What is blockchain good for?

Though blockchain is now a well-known term, the specific qualities that make it useful are still poorly understood. David Chan, CEO and co-founder of a distributed ledger technology-based programmable money platform called eCora, joins Lewis McLellan, editor of OMFIF’s Digital Monetary Institute. They discuss the unique properties of modern blockchains and highlight the areas – like programmable digital currency for industry – where they are uniquely placed to deliver value.

Transforming international payments

Lewis McLellan, editor of OMFIF’s Digital Monetary Institute, joined Victoria Cumings, chief legal and regulatory officer at RTGS.global, at the DMI Symposium to discuss how the Financial Stability Board’s roadmap for enhancing cross-border payments is driving change in the payments ecosystem. They discussed public and private sector efforts to transform international payments and delved into how new thinking and approaches can contribute towards industry improvements.

’Walking the tightrope’: How China is balancing geopolitics and economics

Dennis Shen, macroeconomist and director of sovereign ratings at Scope Ratings, speaks with Taylor Pearce, economist at OMFIF, about China’s economic relations with the US and Europe in the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Shen discusses how China is balancing its political and economic interests in the face of western sanctions on Russia, assesses the future of the renminbi as a reserve currency and concludes with his outlook for China’s economy and future influence, including how China’s slowing growth may affect the country’s soft power objectives.