Week in review: Merkel and Macron to the rescue, Covid and real estate, and the return of German government borrowing

OMFIF’s Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on the Franco-German proposal for a €500bn recovery fund, the impact of Covid-19 on real estate markets, the outlook for this decade, and the return of German government borrowing.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. Franco-German fund move amid ECB manoeuvring: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/franco-german-fund-move-amid-ecb-manoeuvring/
2. Covid's impact on real estate: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/covids-impact-on-real-estate/
3. Markets should pay heed: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/markets-should-pay-heed/
4. Asia Pacific regional economic outlook: https://www.omfif.org/events/asia-pacific-regional-economic-outlook/
5. Refinancing the German crisis measures: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/refinancing-the-german-crisis-measures/
6. Future of the euro area: https://www.omfif.org/events/future-of-the-euro-area/
7. Global trade during the economic slowdown: https://www.omfif.org/events/global-trade-during-the-economic-slowdown/
8. Japan Financial Services Agency perspectives on Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/japan-financial-services-agency-perspectives-on-covid-19-addressing-financial-stability-risks/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

Global value chains, innovation and international trade

As US-China tensions fuel economic nationalism and protectionism, globalisation could be coming to an end. Xiaolan Fu, director of the Technology and Management Centre for Development at the University of Oxford, joins OMFIF’s Brandon Chye to discuss the short-term disruptions and long-term transformations to global value chains and international trade.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Fixed income in emerging economies

James Blair, fixed income investment director at Capital Group, joins Pierre Ortlieb, economist at OMFIF, to discuss the state of play in global bond markets. They cover Capital Group’s approach to credit investments, opportunities in emerging markets, and the global central bank response to the pandemic shock. Other themes include the global long-term interest rate landscape and the outlook for currency and commodities markets.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Fed Talk: in conversation with James Bullard

In response to the Covid-19 health crisis, the Federal Reserve has taken a number of policy actions to help steady both the US economy and global dollar liquidity. James Bullard, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, joins David Marsh, chairman of OMFIF, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s policies, an outlook for the US economy and global consequences of the pandemic.

This was recorded as part of a live panel discussion.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Week in review: ECB-German court battle continues, what’s next for inflation, and reviving climate action

OMFIF’s Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on inflation predictions, the German constitutional court ruling on the Bundesbank's participation in European quantitative easing, climate action, and the financial consequences of stimulus transmission.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. The end of stable inflation rates: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/the-inflation-v-deflation-debate/
2. Inflation now a fiscal phenomenon: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/inflation-now-a-fiscal-phenomenon/
3. German court dispute goes to EU's heart: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/german-court-dispute-goes-to-eus-heart/
4. ECB 'may double' pandemic bond buying: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/ecb-may-double-pandemic-bond-buying/
5. Covid-19 lessons for sustainable finance: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/covid-19-lessons-for-sustainable-finance/
6. Stimulus transmission and its financial consequences: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/stimulus-transmission-and-its-financial-consequences/
7. Building the Philippines' 'new economy': https://www.omfif.org/events/building-the-philippines-new-economy/
8. German economic developments: https://www.omfif.org/events/german-economic-developments/
9. 'Too big to fail' in times of Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/too-big-to-fail-in-times-of-covid-19/
10. Reopening India's economy: https://www.omfif.org/events/reopening-indias-economy/
11. Covid-19 and the economy - A view from California: https://www.omfif.org/events/covid-19-and-the-economy-a-view-from-california/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.

The Great Lockdown: Analysing the world economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund projects a significant contraction in all parts of the world as a result of the Covid-19 crisis. Lockdown measures and uncertainty about the return to work, as well as what a ‘new normal’ would look like, are having a serious impact on how to forecast future growth. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, deputy director in the IMF’s research department, discusses the baseline scenario in the World Economic Outlook, and the potential ways forward for the global economy in 2020-21.

Download the presentation slides referenced:

https://www.omfif.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WEO-PPT-May-8_2020.pdf 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Debt restructuring in the post-pandemic economy

Before the pandemic, the inherent imbalances which had built up after a decade of monetary policy intervention had resulted in excess debt and probable future instability. Bill White, former chairman of the economic and development review committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, joins Mark Burgess, Asia chairman of OMFIF. They discuss what the Covid-19 outbreak means for policy-makers, emerging market debt prior to the crisis, and shadow banking.

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

The OMFIF/EY Covid response series: stimulus transmission and its financial consequences

Part two of the OMFIF/EY Covid response series

What are the consequences of addressing the consequences? In this edition, OMFIF's John Orchard and EY's David Barker discuss the shock-and-awe measures by governments to rescue their economies from the Covid-19 crisis and the short- and medium-term implications for their finance ministries. What are the paths out of the emergency schemes? How are governments planning to restart their economies and what will it mean for their finances, and their financial sectors? How is this crisis fundamentally reordering their priorities in both developed and emerging economies?

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

The OMFIF/EY Covid response series: Stimulus transmission and the banking sector

How are commercial banks coping with Covid-19? Obliged to implement government-guaranteed lending quickly while also handling other crisis-related operational and commercial challenges, they have their work cut out. What has worked well and what has not, yet? How are the opposing needs of speed and prudence reconciled? How are banks preparing for impairments to their loan books? What does the crisis mean for their digital transformations? And is this the opportunity to restore the reputational damage of 10 years ago?  OMFIF Chief Executive Officer John Orchard discusses these themes with Jan Bellens, global sector leader, banking & capital markets at EY.

Download the written conversation: https://www.omfif.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Transcript-EY-Jan-Bellens-JO-vers.docx 

Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Week in review: German constitutional court v ECB, the dollar-renminbi conundrum, and OMFIF’s Digital Monetary Institute

OMFIF’s Julie Levy-Abegnoli looks back over some of the most recent articles published on the OMFIF website, including those on the German constitutional court ruling on Europe's quantitative easing, the global role of the dollar and renminbi, and digital finance.

Articles and other items referenced:

1. Conflict looming over ECB scrutiny and independence: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/conflict-looming-over-ecb-scrutiny-and-independence/
2. The dollar-renminbi conundrum: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/the-dollar-renminbi-conundrum/
3. OMFIF Digital Monetary Institute: https://www.omfif.org/dmi
4. Neighbours look to China for payment technology: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/neighbours-look-to-china-for-payment-technology/
5. Crisis of disconnection: https://www.omfif.org/2020/05/crisis-of-disconnection/
6. Analysing the world economic outlook: https://www.omfif.org/events/the-great-lockdown-analysing-the-world-economic-outlook/
7. EIB policy response to Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/eib-policy-response-to-covid-19/
8. The Federal Reserve's outlook for testing times: https://www.omfif.org/events/the-federal-reserves-outlook-for-testing-times/
9. Economic impact of coronavirus on South Korea: https://www.omfif.org/events/economic-impact-of-coronavirus-on-south-korea/
10. Japan's response to Covid-19: https://www.omfif.org/events/japans-response-to-covid-19-impact-on-financial-markets-and-economy/
11. Economic outlook for Japan: https://www.omfif.org/events/economic-outlook-for-japan/

Music: Hey Mercy by Pierce Murphy is licensed under an Attribution License.